Project Description: Salt marshes throughout the Northeast are getting wetter or tending toward submergence. The loss of salt marshes can negatively affect the important socio-ecological functions provided by these marsh ecosystems (e.g., soil carbon sequestration, storm surge and flood buffering, and habitat for at-risk fish and wildlife species). One strategy for protecting salt marsh resources is to facilitate the natural process of landward marsh migration in response to sea level rise (SLR). High-resolution migration modeling, with consideration of anthropogenic constraints or validation of such models using field survey data, is lacking for national parks in the northeast, and existing migration models are of limited value for developing strategies to plan for natural marsh migration and/or facilitate marsh migration within northeastern parks. The proposed research would analyze salt marsh migration potential at the highest resolution possible at nine coastal
NPS parks. Fieldwork will be conducted to develop data for model validation at selected parks, and results of the work will inform climate change-related planning and management while also providing the basis for facilitated migration planning
Salt marshes and adjacent coastal landscapes are high visibility NPS resources, which receive high visitor use and have engaged interest from many partners and stakeholders. Materials produced as part of marsh migration study will improve the knowledge of the condition and projected changes to these important public resources to increase public understanding and enjoyment and indirectly promote scientifically sound management and spatial planning decisions within park boundaries.
This project would involve three primary tasks including: modeling
marsh migration, evaluating anthropogenic constraints to marsh migration, and
evaluating the results of the marsh migration models. Salt marsh migration will be modeled with the Sea Level Affecting Marsh Migration (SLAMM) tool using the best available data for each park, and for sea level rise scenarios to be determined during the study. Areas adjacent to existing salt marshes will be evaluated for anthropogenic constraints to marsh migration based on land use and land cover, infrastructure, park management zoning, and parcel ownership (e.g. public vs. private). Results of the anthropogenic constraint assessment will be combined with the potential expansion areas based on the modeling results to provide more realistic assessments of the potential for salt marsh migration. Available field-surveyed elevation data for the marshes within the parks, along with new field surveys conducted for a subset of parks, will be used to evaluate the accuracy of the DEMs and ground slope in marsh and upland settings and determine the effectiveness of our DEM “cleaning” method. SLAMM models will be run with the best refined DEM and slope products, and Monte Carlo simulations will be run to provide a level of confidence for the migration models.
GIS datasets and mapping of potential marsh migration areas in and around the parks along with an assessment of anthropogenic and management constraints as provided by this study will provide important insights into the likely pathways along which salt marshes will migrate naturally. This information is critical in planning for changes to the landscape related to sea level rise, and essential data for selecting potential routes to facilitate migration and conserve the socio-ecological services these marshes provide as sea level rise and we lose existing marsh area
Lead Principal Investigator: Dr. Jason Parent, University of Rhode Island
Partner Institution: University of Rhode Island
Federal Agency: National Park Service
Federal Agency Technical Contact: Brian Mitchell
Start Year: 2024
End Year: 2027
Initial Funding Amount: $299,999.99
Federal Grant Number: P24AC02109
Products Associated with this Project: